In a recent speech, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins highlighted the implications of the recent spike in long-term bond yields. Collins acknowledged that the rise in yields indicates some tightening of financial conditions. If this trend continues, it may reduce the need for further monetary-policy tightening in the near future.
Although Collins mentioned that the 10-year Treasury yield has slightly retreated this week, she emphasized that the current surge in long-term bond yields strengthens her belief that we are approaching or have already reached the peak federal-funds rate for this tightening cycle.
Collins urged the Fed to exercise patience in this economic climate, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between meaningful signals and mere noise in the incoming data. It seems that the current consensus among Fed officials supports this cautious approach, with some even suggesting a halt in interest-rate hikes due to the recent increase in rates.
Notably, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan shares Collins's view that the backup in rates may allow the Fed to discontinue raising rates. However, not all Fed officials are in agreement. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari believes that another rate hike may be necessary to sustain higher bond yields.
Interestingly, traders in derivative markets seem convinced that we have reached peak interest rates. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is currently a mere 12% chance of a quarter-point rate hike at the upcoming Fed meeting on Oct. 31-Nov. 1. However, they do anticipate a slightly higher chance of a hike occurring in December, estimating it at 30%.
As the market continues to closely monitor bond yields and their impact on interest rates, it remains to be seen how the Federal Reserve will navigate these changing dynamics in the months ahead.
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