Ten-year Treasury yields moved slightly higher early Wednesday, but remained close to seven-week lows as investors continue to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year. The yield on the 2-year Treasury rose 1.2 basis points to 4.855%, while the yield on the 10-year Treasury increased by 2.7 basis points to 4.473%. Additionally, the yield on the 30-year Treasury climbed 1.7 basis points to 4.641%.
The 10-year Treasury yield is currently trading around 4.46% after experiencing a significant drop of 19 basis points on Tuesday due to weaker-than-expected consumer price inflation in October. According to Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, Treasury yields are now stabilizing after the previous session's declines, as traders assess the market for potential bond rallies. The market's assumption that the Federal Reserve is finished with raising rates is aligning with the Committee's stance, resulting in increased favorability in the market.
FedWatch Tool and Rate Cut Speculation
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 95% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% following its upcoming meeting on December 13th. Moreover, the chances of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May meeting have risen to 48%, up from 32% a month ago.
Anticipating Producer Prices Report
Bond investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the producer prices report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, hoping for evidence that inflationary pressures in the pipeline are also easing.
U.S. Economic Updates
Retail Sales Data and Manufacturing Survey
On Wednesday, we can expect the release of several important U.S. economic updates. At 8:30 a.m., we will receive the October retail sales data, as well as the November Empire State manufacturing survey. These reports will provide valuable insights into the current state of the economy.
Business Inventories Report
Additionally, at 10 a.m., we will receive the September business inventories report. This report will shed light on the inventory levels of businesses and can provide indications of future economic activity.
Testimonies and Speeches
The House Financial Services Committee will hear a testimony from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision, Michael Barr, at 9:30 a.m. This testimony is expected to offer valuable insights and analysis on the state of the financial sector.
Later in the day, at 3:30 p.m., Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will deliver a speech. Barkin's remarks will likely address key economic issues and provide further context on the current economic landscape.
Central Banks Tackling Inflation
In related news, the U.K. has also demonstrated success in tackling inflation. The 10-year U.K. gilt yield BX:TMBMKGB-10Y remained near its lowest level since June. This follows recent data revealing that consumer prices rose by a lower-than-expected 4.6% in the year to October, marking the slowest pace in two years.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, commented on the U.S. economy's progress towards a more normal pace of price increases. According to Adams, the recent CPI report supports this notion. As a result, bond markets are adjusting their expectations, with lower odds of the Federal Reserve implementing further interest rate increases in the near future and higher odds of potential rate cuts in 2024.
Adams also added that the yields of longer-term bonds, such as the ten-year Treasury, are likely to experience a smaller decrease compared to two-year yields. This is due to the influence of large fiscal deficits, which exert upward pressure on the long end of the yield curve. Furthermore, financial markets are expected to exhibit greater optimism regarding the economy's ability to achieve normal rates of inflation and economic growth without experiencing a severe downturn.
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